THE DELAWARE POPULATION CONSORTIUM
Consortium History
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There were many generators of population projections prior to the founding of the Delaware Population Consortium in 1975. Every new state or local jurisdiction’s capital project or proposed program seemed to generate a new set of projections. Few were comprehensive in content or geographic coverage. Most studies provided only statewide or, at best, countywide coverage. Other studies were localized to single school districts or sewer districts. These projections were often developed to deal with specific issues. There were projections of elderly population, of school age children, or simply of the number of households.
These projections were rarely produced with standardized, accepted methodologies. There was no assurance that common and nationally recognized techniques for forecasting and projecting were used. Methodologies ranged from build-out scenarios based on existing zoning to straight-line projection of past trends. They were frequently arbitrarily adjusted for "local factors."
The resulting projections were inconsistent and conflicting. For example, there were six different governmental reports on comprehensive development planning and population change in New Castle County in the decade spanning the late 1950’s and 1960’s. Those studies included projected 1980 County populations ranging from 512,900 persons to 672,000 persons. The US Census Bureau counted 398,115 persons living in New Castle County in 1980.
These six studies were generated by different interest groups and at different levels of government. Each used different starting and ending points. There was no system to evaluate the results over time. There was no systematic approach to updating these projections. Many of these projections were issued by consultants whose involvement ended with the completion of a contract.
The Delaware Population Consortium was formed in 1975, with the goal of "providing a continuing forum for debate and discussion of matters relating to state and local population growth." (Delaware Population Growth, 1975: University of Delaware, Division of Urban Affairs) Parties interested in a common set of reliable projections were brought together under the sponsorship of the State Planning Office; they called themselves the Delaware Population Consortium (DPC). Although the State Planning Office provided sponsorship and technical support, direction was by consensus of the participants. The University of Delaware’s Division of Urban Affairs prepared the initial report under contract with the State Planning Office and financed through a comprehensive planning grant from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The original core members of the DPC were from several departments of State government, the three counties, the Cities of Newark and Wilmington, WILMAPCO (the federally designated metropolitan planning organization for transportation) and the 208 Aerated Waste Treatment Management Program, with technical and methodological assistance provided by the University of Delaware. In time, the program and the DPC membership has grown to include statewide representation from private utilities, citizens' groups, non-profit organizations, community, and business interests.
The DPC effort is guided by a set of objectives. They were developed early on and have been virtually unchanged over the last 30 years. They include:
- A single set of projections, in the public domain and widely disseminated to all users of demographic data.
- A long-term horizon of thirty years starting with the most recent Decennial Census and continuing by single (for selected years) and five-year intervals.
- A single methodology fine-tuned over time.
- A regular annual release date during the month of October of each year, to ensure a predictable flow of information around which policy and decision-making can be built or monitored.
- On-going review and update as required.
- Projections for a consistent set of geographic areas including the State, each county, Wilmington, Dover and Newark.
The DPC is an informal organization. The organization consists of the Committee-of-the-Whole, a technical or steering committee, administrative support staff, and technical support staff.
The Committee-of-the-Whole is composed of any group or persons who have an interest in demographic projections. As a result, the composition of the committee-of-the-whole is never exactly the same from year to year. The Committee-of-the-Whole usually gathers only for the annual meeting. Its role is to comment on and adopt a projection series recommended by the steering committee.
The steering committee is composed of a core committee of professional demographers, planners, analysts, economists, and other interested persons. Its role is to gather, monitor and analyze relevant information about changes in births, deaths, migration and employment.
Volunteers are selected from the Committee-of-the-Whole to staff the project. The organization is governed by a set of by-laws. A committee Chair, a Vice-Chair and a Secretary are elected annually.
The steering committee includes participants from the University of Delaware’s Center for Applied Demographic and Survey Research, the Delaware Department of Education, the Delaware Health Statistics Center of the Delaware Department of Health and Social Services, Delaware Office of State Planning Coordination, the Delaware State Housing Authority, and members from the county and city planning departments, WILMAPCO, The Dover/Kent MPO, and DELDOT.
The process used by DPC to produce an annual projection series is straightforward and is tied to releases of information throughout the calendar year. The previous year’s projection series is evaluated against annual US Census estimates (FSCPE). The Technical Committee identifies any significant changes or newly recognized trends.
The steering committee deliberates and produces a draft report in tabular form. The draft and revisions are produced during the spring months. The draft is then distributed to the members of the Committee-of-the-Whole, based on the last annual meeting’s attendance, as well as any interested party.
The product and methodology are reviewed at an annual meeting, usually held in October. At this time there is discussion of next year’s product, which can include changes or refinements in the content of the projections, or inclusion of significant events that might influence the base data and assumptions.
